What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 95%, implying a 95% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 21.9%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: DeepSeek market share this week

chance of YES95% +66.0pp in 24h

Price range (22h)

29–96%

24h volume

17.3K

$1 contracts

Open interest

6.5K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 22h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 22.2%90%14.2K

Above 22.4%87%19.9K

Above 22.6%84%27.1K

Above 23.4%62%17.9K

Above 22.9%62%17.8K