What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 51%, implying a 51% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Dec 16, 2026 (45d) All outcomes: Nov 2026 temperature increase?

chance of YES51%

Price range (30h)

74–74%

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 30h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.