What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 93%, implying a 93% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 16, 2026 (15d) All outcomes: Oct 2026 temperature increase?

chance of YES93% +3.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

92–99%

· 7d -4 pts

24h volume

123

$1 contracts

Open interest

2.7K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.