What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 24%, implying a 24% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 03, 2027 (368d) All outcomes: FL-14 House winner? Polls & election odds

chance of YES24% -4.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

26–75%

30d -26 pts · 7d -24 pts

24h volume

4.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

163.3K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

31¢ / 32¢

spread 1.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 31.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 28, 11:38 AM ET	YES	34¢	5,000	$2K
Oct 28, 11:23 AM ET	YES	34¢	3,093	$1K
Oct 23, 1:38 AM ET	YES	32¢	3,975	$1K
Oct 22, 6:58 PM ET	YES	32¢	10,200	$3K
Oct 22, 1:17 PM ET	NO	70¢	2,658	$2K
Oct 21, 10:47 PM ET	YES	34¢	56,416	$19K
Oct 21, 2:35 PM ET	YES	33¢	5,593	$2K
Oct 19, 8:01 PM ET	NO	68¢	1,776	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.