What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 26%, implying a 26% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 03, 2027 (368d) All outcomes: 2026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout? Polls & election odds

chance of YES26% +4.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

14–31%

30d +94 pts · 7d +82 pts

24h volume

9.1K

$1 contracts

Open interest

27.3K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$5K

27% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 10:52 AM ET	YES	24¢	5,901	$1K
Oct 30, 12:52 AM ET	NO	77¢	1,465	$1K
Oct 30, 12:00 AM ET	NO	77¢	1,896	$1K
Oct 20, 1:31 AM ET	NO	83¢	1,585	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.