What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 52%, implying a 52% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

Martin McDonagh

Closes Dec 31, 2027 (539d) 24h volume 142 Open interest 2.4K Event Oscar nominees: Best Director

52%

implied YES probability

-5.0pp 24h

Last 21 days · High 66% · Low 50% · 7d -6.9pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.