What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 66%, implying a 66% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

The Black Ball

Closes Dec 31, 2027 (562d) 24h volume 15 Open interest 2.5K Event Oscar nominees: Best Picture

66%

implied YES probability

Last 13 days · High 72% · Low 59% · 7d +9.7pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.