What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 50%, implying a 50% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Oct 31, 2026 (0d) All outcomes: Where will it rain on Oct 30, 2026?

chance of YES50% -69.0pp in 24h

Price range (43h)

1–76%

24h volume

116.0K

$1 contracts

Open interest

34.5K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

$8K

0% on YES

hourly, 43h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Seattle100%9.6K

Tampa50%22.4K

Houston50%30.8K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 31, 12:38 AM ET	NO	99¢	1,292	$1K
Oct 31, 12:33 AM ET	NO	99¢	2,000	$2K
Oct 31, 12:29 AM ET	NO	95¢	1,575	$1K
Oct 30, 10:24 PM ET	NO	87¢	1,944	$2K
Oct 30, 9:09 PM ET	NO	77¢	1,479	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.