What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 25%, implying a 25% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 16, 2026 (6d) All outcomes: Ebenezer · Rotten Tomatoes score

chance of YES25% +4.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

21–73%

30d -55 pts · 7d -16 pts

24h volume

765

$1 contracts

Open interest

18.9K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$6K

0% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Nov 4, 8:33 PM ET	NO	77¢	2,322	$2K
Oct 31, 10:30 AM ET	NO	85¢	1,497	$1K
Oct 31, 8:14 AM ET	NO	68¢	4,987	$3K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.