What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 96%, implying a 96% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 25, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 25, 2027 (86d) All outcomes: Iowa State Senate winner? Polls & election odds

chance of YES96%

Price range (120d)

88–98%

· 7d +3 pts

24h volume

10.0K

$1 contracts

Open interest

18.0K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$16K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 3:06 PM ET	YES	96¢	10,000	$10K
Oct 25, 6:24 PM ET	YES	93¢	3,288	$3K
Oct 24, 12:43 PM ET	YES	92¢	2,230	$2K
Oct 21, 10:15 PM ET	YES	88¢	1,874	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.