What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 38%, implying a 38% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 28, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Shen Bo-yang

Settles Nov 28, 2027 (405d) All outcomes: Taipei mayoral election winner?

chance of YES38% -5.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

4–85%

30d +72 pts · 7d -12 pts

24h volume

26.1K

$1 contracts

Open interest

137.1K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

38¢ / 39¢

spread 1.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 38.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 19, 1:33 AM ET	NO	62¢	7,803	$5K
Oct 18, 9:46 PM ET	NO	63¢	15,165	$10K
Oct 17, 9:01 PM ET	YES	48¢	3,989	$2K
Oct 17, 6:32 PM ET	YES	43¢	4,477	$2K
Oct 17, 12:04 PM ET	YES	47¢	4,010	$2K
Oct 16, 6:52 PM ET	NO	62¢	3,133	$2K
Oct 15, 10:02 PM ET	YES	47¢	10,167	$5K
Oct 11, 11:51 PM ET	YES	46¢	8,312	$4K
Oct 11, 10:06 PM ET	YES	47¢	12,400	$6K
Oct 8, 4:20 PM ET	YES	41¢	10,595	$4K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.