What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 81%, implying a 81% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Dec 01, 2026 (30d) All outcomes: Number of tornadoes in Nov 2026?

chance of YES81% +4.0pp in 24h

Price range (6d)

86–88%

24h volume

197

$1 contracts

Open interest

247

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 6d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.