What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 26, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

At least 5 weeks

chance of YES12% -8.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

2–22%

30d +267 pts · 7d +57 pts

24h volume

513

$1 contracts

Open interest

19.3K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.