What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 10, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

chance of YES4% -2.0pp in 24h

Price range (46h)

2–6%

24h volume

7.9K

$1 contracts

Open interest

13.9K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$15K

0% on YES

hourly, 46h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Nov 8, 10:16 AM ET	NO	99¢	1,094	$1K
Nov 7, 4:03 PM ET	NO	99¢	3,964	$4K
Nov 7, 9:19 AM ET	NO	97¢	1,876	$2K
Nov 5, 6:31 PM ET	NO	98¢	7,999	$8K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.