What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 3%, implying a 3% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketCrypto

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Settles Jan 01, 2028 (427d) All outcomes: Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

chance of YES3% -1.1pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

4–14%

30d -36 pts · 7d -18 pts

24h volume

$360

USDC traded

Open interest

$155.2K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Related stocks

BASE

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

December 31, 202742%$735

June 30, 202722%$529

September 30, 20260%—

December 31, 20250%—

June 30, 20260%—

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.