What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 50%, implying a 50% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Crypto

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

$150M

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (129d) 24h volume $2.0K Open interest $912.2K Event Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

50%

implied YES probability

+3.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 83% · Low 44% · 7d -30.3pp · 30d -34.4pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is asking whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Extended's token will exceed $150 million one day after its launch. As of the current price, there is a 72% probability that this will occur. The FDV calculation takes into account the total token supply and token price, which must be publicly transferable and tradable for the launch to be considered complete. The market's resolution source defines "one day after launch" as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the initial launch. Any changes to the token's supply or price, or delays in its public availability, could impact the market's current price of 0.71 (72% probability).

Generated Jul 10, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.