What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 10%, implying a 10% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketMarkets & Companies

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

chance of YES10% +1.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

7–16%

30d +6 pts · 7d +20 pts

24h volume

$4.1K

USDC traded

Open interest

$41.5K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.