Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

The prediction market for crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31 suggests a relatively low probability of this event occurring, with a current price of 0.14 indicating a 14% chance. The market is currently pricing in the possibility that the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures will not exceed $147.27 by the final trading day on or before December 31. Known facts informing this current price include recent trends and market conditions, as well as any relevant news or announcements affecting the crude oil market. A change in these factors could potentially impact the price of this prediction market, with a significant increase in the probability of reaching a new all-time high potentially driving the price up, while a decrease in probability due to unfavorable market developments could cause the price to fall.