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Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?

5.60%
Settles Dec 31, 2026 (67d) All outcomes: How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

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chance of YES49% +4.0pp in 24h
Price range (34h)
42–56%
24h volume
$170
USDC traded
Open interest
$26.1K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

hourly, 34h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

5.40%70%$128
5.50%69%$147
5.70%40%$1.0K
5.80%17%$669
5.90%11%$650
6.00%4%$257

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.

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