What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 7%, implying a 7% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketCrypto

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

chance of YES7% +0.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

6–18%

30d -48 pts · 7d -20 pts

24h volume

$338

USDC traded

Open interest

$395.2K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Related stocks

FDV

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

$500M 7%$139

$100M6%—

$300M5%$25

$100M5%$504

$2B5%—

$3B4%—

$5B4%$5

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.