Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Settles Dec 31, 2026 (72d) All outcomes: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

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Preview
chance of YES8% +3.4pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
3–28%
30d -30 pts · 7d -27 pts
24h volume
$14.1K
USDC traded
Open interest
$240.0K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

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How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.