Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market is currently pricing in a 26% probability that Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026. The current price of 0.27 reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood of this event occurring. Known facts informing the current price include ongoing diplomatic efforts and international pressure on Iran to address concerns over its nuclear program. A change in the direction or pace of these negotiations could impact the price, with a more positive outcome potentially driving the price up and a lack of progress or increased tensions pushing it down. The market will resolve based on an official public pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium by the specified deadline, regardless of whether this is achieved through a unilateral announcement or as part of a broader agreement with other countries.