GlobeNewswire Inc.T3·26d ago
TOVX Theriva Biologics, Inc.
XASE
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
TOVX
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Key stats
Related
About
- Industry (SIC)
- PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (2834) · industry map
- Exchange
- XASE
- Market Cap
- $0.0B
- Employees
- 16
- List Date
- 1993-04-05
- CIK
- 0000894158
- Next Earnings
- 2026-11-11
- Headquarters
- Rockville, MD
- Homepage
- https://www.therivabio.com
Theriva Biologics Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company developing a novel oncolytic adenovirus (OV) platform to address devastating cancers with high unmet needs. It is a clinical-stage program VCN-01, designed to break down the tumor stroma, and its preclinical-stage program VCN-11 leverages its proprietary Albumin Shield Technology to protect systemically administered oncolytic viruses from the host immune system. Product Candidates includes SYN-004 (ribaxamase) and SYN-020.
Summary
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composite
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No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -- | 69.14% | 13.38% | -23.03% | -30.23% | 7.31% |
| Feb | -- | -3.23% | -9.81% | 20.00% | 12.36% | 4.83% |
| Mar | -- | -19.25% | -5.21% | -17.29% | -1.46% | -10.80% |
| Apr | -- | -14.53% | -9.22% | 20.54% | 58.25% | 13.76% |
| May | -- | 7.95% | -38.41% | -66.65% | -27.16% | -31.07% |
| Jun | -- | 56.47% | -10.15% | -11.22% | -11.28% | 5.96% |
| Jul | -- | -29.47% | -3.23% | 1.87% | -16.10% | -11.73% |
| Aug | -- | -19.24% | 8.16% | -5.33% | 12.26% | -1.04% |
| Sep | -- | 4.74% | -66.42% | -0.66% | -9.64% | -18.00% |
| Oct | -26.44% | -13.85% | 14.06% | -22.29% | -14.04%* | -12.51% |
| Nov | -6.89% | 34.61% | -27.64% | -16.95% | -- | -4.22% |
| Dec | -36.83% | -28.32% | 26.81% | -3.88% | -- | -10.55% |
| Total | -56.73% | -5.37% | -82.09% | -83.80% | -42.21% | -54.04% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $0.21
SMA 50: $0.23
SMA 200: $0.24
Current: $0.19
EMA 12: $0.20
EMA 26: $0.21
MACD: -0.0095 | Signal: -0.0021
BEARISH
ADX (14): 18.75
RANGE
+DI: 10.35
−DI: 19.99
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 34.65
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 5.52
Stoch %D: 4.05
Williams %R: -94.01
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $0.24
BB Lower: $0.19
NEUTRAL
OBV: 2,485,262,622
Vol SMA 20: 524,067
Vol ROC: -74.66%
ATR: $0.01
True Range: $0.01
HV 20: 49.7%
HV 30: 50.2%
HV 60: 47.9%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-28T00:00:00 – 2026-10-26T00:00:00
AI Analysis
LLM Stock Analysis Report: TOVX
Executive Summary
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of TOVX, with an overall assessment of BULLISH (confidence level 7/10). Key drivers include positive news sentiment surrounding Theriva Biologics' clinical trial results and upcoming presentations. Primary risks include high volatility and potential market corrections.
Investment thesis: TOVX is poised for further upside as it continues to demonstrate promising biotechnology developments, which may lead to increased institutional interest and higher prices.
Recent news sentiment impact: The positive news headlines have contributed to the bullish momentum, with a high degree of consistency in the recent news articles highlighting Theriva Biologics' progress.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction: Short-term (1-4 weeks): Uptrend; Medium-term (1-3 months): Neutral; Long-term (3-12 months): Bullish
Support/Resistance Levels: SMA 20: $0.22, SMA 50: $0.24, Upper Bollinger Band: $0.24
Momentum Signals: RSI interpretation: Neutral (46.74), indicating no strong buying or selling pressure. MACD signal: Bearish, indicating a possible pullback before further gains.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: Theriva Biologics announces positive results from clinical trials and upcoming presentations, highlighting the potential for continued growth.
Sentiment Assessment: Aggregate sentiment is POSITIVE (70%), indicating a strong trend of good news surrounding TOVX.
Catalyst Identification: Upcoming presentations and clinical trial data releases may continue to drive prices higher.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation: High risk relative to market (beta 2.72), suggesting the stock is more volatile than the S&P 500.
Volatility Regime: Current volatility is high, with a Historical Volatility of 77.3%.
Options Market Signals: IV Premium vs HV30: N/A (positive), indicating implied richer than realized volatility.
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: TOVX outperformed the sector in recent weeks, suggesting relative strength.
Institutional Activity: No clear institutional interest signals are present, as the stock is still relatively unknown.
Correlation Analysis: Correlation with SPY is low (0.22), indicating a high degree of independence from market trends.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels: SMA 20: $0.22, Upper Bollinger Band: $0.24
Breakout/Breakdown Levels: SMA 50: $0.24 (potential breakout)
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: Upcoming presentations and clinical trial data releases
Risk Management: Stop-loss levels at SMA 20 ($0.22) to manage potential pullbacks.
By analyzing the technical indicators, news headlines, and risk metrics, we conclude that TOVX is poised for further upside, driven by positive biotechnology developments and institutional interest. However, high volatility and market corrections remain risks to consider.
Generated
News
All TOVX news →
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TOVX Options Activity & IV Rank
Loading options activity...
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
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pts
EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
30 DTE / 10d
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—
pts
EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 2.5877
Alpha: -35.08%
Correlation: 0.2947
R-Squared: 8.7%
Stock Volatility: 111.9%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
High volatility - stock moves more than market
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own TOVX
1 of 37 tracked investors
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance Technologies Hedge fund Jim Simons | $16K | #3110 of 3138 | new | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
TOVX Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
TOVX Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-01-06Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | Jeffrey J Kraws | Director | Grant (A) | +75,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-06 | Steven A Shallcross | CEO and CFO | Grant (A) | +475,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-06 | John J Monahan | Director | Grant (A) | +75,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-06 | Jeffrey Alan Wolf | Director | Grant (A) | +75,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-01 | Steven A Shallcross | CEO and CFO | Grant (A) | +190,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-01 | Jeffrey Alan Wolf | Director | Grant (A) | +25,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-01 | John J Monahan | Director | Grant (A) | +25,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-01 | Jeffrey J Kraws | Director | Grant (A) | +25,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2023-12-15 | Jeffrey Alan Wolf | Director | Grant (A) | +110,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2023-12-15 | Jeffrey J Kraws | Director | Grant (A) | +110,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2023-12-15 | John J Monahan | Director | Grant (A) | +110,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2023-12-15 | Steven A Shallcross | CEO and CFO | Grant (A) | +700,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2023-06-08 | Steven A Shallcross | CEO and CFO | Buy (P) | +14,000 | $0.69 | $9.7K | EDGAR |
| 2023-06-07 | Steven A Shallcross | CEO and CFO | Buy (P) | +26,000 | $0.63 | $16.5K | EDGAR |
| 2023-02-13 | Steven A Shallcross | CEO and CFO | Buy (P) | +25,000 | $1.04 | $26.1K | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
TOVX Insider Holdings
1 insider · @ $0.19
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven A Shallcross | CEO and CFO | 10,000 | $1.9K | $160.0K | 11 | 2026-01-06 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
TOVX Board & Officers
As of SEC filings through Jan 6, 2026Directors 4
- Jeffrey Alan Wolf · since Oct 31, 2006
- Jeffrey J Kraws · since Oct 31, 2006
- Steven A Shallcross · listed since Dec 2018
- John J Monahan · since Nov 11, 2020
Officers 1
- Steven A Shallcross · CEO and CFO · listed since Dec 2018
Changes in the last 10 years (9)
| Dec 15, 2022 | The company announced the departure of Francis Tufaro as Chief Operating Officer in an SEC filing |
| Mar 22, 2022 | Francis Tufaro became Chief Operating Officer |
| Nov 11, 2020 | Scott Tarriff left the board, per their own SEC filing |
| Nov 11, 2020 | John J Monahan became a director |
| Apr 3, 2019 | Randal J Kirk reported in an SEC filing no longer being a 10% owner |
| Apr 3, 2019 | Intrexon Corp reported in an SEC filing no longer being a 10% owner |
| Dec 7, 2018 | Steven A Shallcross listed as CEO and CFO (previously Chief Financial Officer) in SEC filings |
| Dec 7, 2018 | Steven A Shallcross first listed as a director in an SEC filing |
| Jan 17, 2017 | Joseph A. Sliman became Chief Medical Officer |
Not reported recently (2)
- Joseph A. Sliman · Last reported as Chief Medical Officer in an SEC filing dated Dec 21, 2017
- Jeffrey Scott Riley · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Dec 2, 2016
Compiled from SEC filings by the company and its directors and officers. Dates are as stated in those filings. Where no filing says when someone left, we show the last filing that listed them.
ETF Holders
1 ETF hold TOVX
1 shown · $109.39K total exposure
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.00% | $109,390 | — | 2026-09-30 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.