September 2025 FOMC Meeting: Rate Decision and Probabilities
September 16–17, 2025 · decision Wednesday, September 17, 2025, 2:00 PM ET · with economic projections (dot plot)
The decision
priced Sep 16, 2025On September 17, 2025, the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by 25 bp to 4.00–4.25%, from 4.25–4.50%.
Bars: the futures-implied odds at the last close before the meeting.
How the market priced it
| When | Date | >25bp cut | 25bp cut | Hold | Decision odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A month before | Aug 18 | 0% | 83% | 17% | 83% | −21 bp |
| A week before | Sep 10 | 6% | 94% | 0% | 94% | −27 bp |
| The day before | Sep 16 | 2% | 98% | 0% | 98% | −25 bp |
Futures-implied odds at the close on or before each date. Decision odds is the probability the market gave the outcome that happened (25bp cut).
Odds in the run-up
Weekly readings (8 weeks, newest first)
| Week ending | >25bp cut | 25bp cut | Hold | Implied | EFFR after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2025 | 2% | 98% | 0% | −25 bp | 4.076% |
| Sep 12, 2025 | 6% | 94% | 0% | −27 bp | 4.065% |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 8% | 92% | 0% | −27 bp | 4.059% |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 0% | 88% | 12% | −22 bp | 4.111% |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 0% | 83% | 17% | −21 bp | 4.122% |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 0% | 88% | 12% | −22 bp | 4.111% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | 0% | 92% | 8% | −23 bp | 4.099% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 0% | 97% | 3% | −24 bp | 4.088% |
Each day’s close of the futures-implied odds for this meeting. The futures price a meeting from about a year out, so this meeting’s history starts Jul 30, 2025; the daily record on this site starts July 30, 2025.
Meeting details
- Dates
- September 16–17, 2025
- Statement
- 2:00 PM ET, Wednesday, September 17, 2025
- Press conference
- 2:30 PM ET
- Projections
- Yes: Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot
- Minutes
- About three weeks after the decision, around Oct 8, 2025
Other meetings
Every meeting since September 2025, with the decision and the odds before it, is on the FOMC meetings page. Live odds for all upcoming meetings, the implied rate path and the futures strip are on Fed Watch.
Questions
What did the Fed decide at the September 2025 FOMC meeting?
On September 17, 2025, the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by 25 bp to 4.00–4.25%, from 4.25–4.50%.
Did markets expect the September 2025 Fed decision?
Yes. The day before (September 16, 2025), Fed Funds futures priced a 98% chance of a 25 bp cut. A week before, the odds of a 25 bp cut were 94%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
Each 30-day Fed Funds futures contract (/ZQ) settles at 100 minus the average effective federal funds rate (EFFR) over its month. The contract for the meeting month, or for the next month without a meeting, gives the rate the market expects after the decision. The gap from the rate going in, measured against 25 bp steps, is split into probabilities for each outcome.