October 2025 FOMC Meeting: Rate Decision and Probabilities
October 28–29, 2025 · decision Wednesday, October 29, 2025, 2:00 PM ET
The decision
priced Oct 28, 2025On October 29, 2025, the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00%, from 4.00–4.25%.
Bars: the futures-implied odds at the last close before the meeting.
How the market priced it
| When | Date | >25bp cut | 25bp cut | Hold | Decision odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A month before | Sep 29 | 0% | 88% | 12% | 88% | −22 bp |
| A week before | Oct 22 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | −25 bp |
| The day before | Oct 28 | 8% | 92% | 0% | 92% | −27 bp |
Futures-implied odds at the close on or before each date. Decision odds is the probability the market gave the outcome that happened (25bp cut).
Odds in the run-up
Weekly readings (14 weeks, newest first)
| Week ending | >25bp cut | 25bp cut | Hold | Implied | EFFR after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 8% | 92% | 0% | −27 bp | 3.850% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 0% | 98% | 2% | −24 bp | 3.865% |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 4% | 96% | 0% | −26 bp | 3.850% |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 0% | 98% | 2% | −24 bp | 3.855% |
| Oct 3, 2025 | 0% | 94% | 6% | −23 bp | 3.855% |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 0% | 86% | 14% | −21 bp | 3.875% |
| Sep 19, 2025 | 0% | 92% | 8% | −23 bp | 3.850% |
| Sep 12, 2025 | 0% | 84% | 16% | −21 bp | 3.855% |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 0% | 80% | 20% | −20 bp | 3.860% |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 0% | 54% | 46% | −14 bp | 3.975% |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 0% | 53% | 47% | −13 bp | 3.990% |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 0% | 54% | 46% | −14 bp | 3.975% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | 0% | 62% | 38% | −15 bp | 3.945% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 0% | 59% | 41% | −15 bp | 3.940% |
Each day’s close of the futures-implied odds for this meeting. The futures price a meeting from about a year out, so this meeting’s history starts Jul 30, 2025; the daily record on this site starts July 30, 2025.
Meeting details
- Dates
- October 28–29, 2025
- Statement
- 2:00 PM ET, Wednesday, October 29, 2025
- Press conference
- 2:30 PM ET
- Projections
- No (published in March, June, September and December)
- Minutes
- About three weeks after the decision, around Nov 19, 2025
Other meetings
Every meeting since September 2025, with the decision and the odds before it, is on the FOMC meetings page. Live odds for all upcoming meetings, the implied rate path and the futures strip are on Fed Watch.
Questions
What did the Fed decide at the October 2025 FOMC meeting?
On October 29, 2025, the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00%, from 4.00–4.25%.
Did markets expect the October 2025 Fed decision?
Yes. The day before (October 28, 2025), Fed Funds futures priced a 92% chance of a 25 bp cut. A week before, the odds of a 25 bp cut were 100%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
Each 30-day Fed Funds futures contract (/ZQ) settles at 100 minus the average effective federal funds rate (EFFR) over its month. The contract for the meeting month, or for the next month without a meeting, gives the rate the market expects after the decision. The gap from the rate going in, measured against 25 bp steps, is split into probabilities for each outcome.