January 2026 FOMC Meeting: Rate Decision and Probabilities
January 27–28, 2026 · decision Wednesday, January 28, 2026, 2:00 PM ET
The decision
priced Jan 27, 2026On January 28, 2026, the FOMC left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75%.
Bars: the futures-implied odds at the last close before the meeting.
How the market priced it
| When | Date | 25bp cut | Hold | Decision odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A month before | Dec 29 | 18% | 82% | 82% | −4 bp |
| A week before | Jan 21 | 4% | 96% | 96% | −1 bp |
| The day before | Jan 27 | 4% | 96% | 96% | −1 bp |
Futures-implied odds at the close on or before each date. Decision odds is the probability the market gave the outcome that happened (Hold).
Odds in the run-up
Weekly readings (27 weeks, newest first)
| Week ending | 25bp cut | Hold | Implied | EFFR after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 4% | 96% | −1 bp | 3.630% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 4% | 96% | −1 bp | 3.630% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 4% | 96% | −1 bp | 3.630% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 4% | 96% | −1 bp | 3.630% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 18% | 82% | −4 bp | 3.595% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 18% | 82% | −4 bp | 3.595% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 20% | 80% | −5 bp | 3.590% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 24% | 76% | −6 bp | 3.580% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 30% | 70% | −7 bp | 3.590% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 32% | 68% | −8 bp | 3.595% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 43% | 57% | −11 bp | 3.625% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 40% | 60% | −10 bp | 3.670% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 43% | 57% | −11 bp | 3.600% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 36% | 64% | −9 bp | 3.645% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 55% | 45% | −14 bp | 3.470% |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 58% | 42% | −14 bp | 3.455% |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 50% | 50% | −13 bp | 3.500% |
| Oct 3, 2025 | 45% | 55% | −11 bp | 3.520% |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 36% | 64% | −9 bp | 3.600% |
| Sep 19, 2025 | 49% | 51% | −12 bp | 3.520% |
| Sep 12, 2025 | 50% | 50% | −13 bp | 3.500% |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 55% | 45% | −14 bp | 3.500% |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 50% | 50% | −13 bp | 3.650% |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 57% | 43% | −14 bp | 3.640% |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 41% | 59% | −10 bp | 3.680% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | 41% | 59% | −10 bp | 3.635% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 46% | 54% | −12 bp | 3.625% |
Each day’s close of the futures-implied odds for this meeting. The futures price a meeting from about a year out, so this meeting’s history starts Jul 30, 2025; the daily record on this site starts July 30, 2025.
Meeting details
- Dates
- January 27–28, 2026
- Statement
- 2:00 PM ET, Wednesday, January 28, 2026
- Press conference
- 2:30 PM ET
- Projections
- No (published in March, June, September and December)
- Minutes
- About three weeks after the decision, around Feb 18, 2026
Other meetings
Every meeting since September 2025, with the decision and the odds before it, is on the FOMC meetings page. Live odds for all upcoming meetings, the implied rate path and the futures strip are on Fed Watch.
Questions
What did the Fed decide at the January 2026 FOMC meeting?
On January 28, 2026, the FOMC left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75%.
Did markets expect the January 2026 Fed decision?
Yes. The day before (January 27, 2026), Fed Funds futures priced a 96% chance of no change. A week before, the odds of no change were 96%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
Each 30-day Fed Funds futures contract (/ZQ) settles at 100 minus the average effective federal funds rate (EFFR) over its month. The contract for the meeting month, or for the next month without a meeting, gives the rate the market expects after the decision. The gap from the rate going in, measured against 25 bp steps, is split into probabilities for each outcome.