March 2026 FOMC Meeting: Rate Decision and Probabilities
March 17–18, 2026 · decision Wednesday, March 18, 2026, 2:00 PM ET · with economic projections (dot plot)
The decision
priced Mar 17, 2026On March 18, 2026, the FOMC left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75%.
Bars: the futures-implied odds at the last close before the meeting.
How the market priced it
| When | Date | 25bp cut | Hold | 25bp hike | Decision odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A month before | Feb 13 | 10% | 90% | 0% | 90% | −2 bp |
| A week before | Mar 11 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0 bp |
| The day before | Mar 17 | 0% | 98% | 2% | 98% | +1 bp |
Futures-implied odds at the close on or before each date. Decision odds is the probability the market gave the outcome that happened (Hold).
Odds in the run-up
Weekly readings (34 weeks, newest first)
| Week ending | 25bp cut | Hold | 25bp hike | Implied | EFFR after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 0% | 98% | 2% | +1 bp | 3.646% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 2% | 98% | 0% | −1 bp | 3.634% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2% | 98% | 0% | −1 bp | 3.634% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 10% | 90% | 0% | −2 bp | 3.616% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 5% | 95% | 0% | −1 bp | 3.628% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 10% | 90% | 0% | −2 bp | 3.616% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 24% | 76% | 0% | −6 bp | 3.580% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 19% | 81% | 0% | −5 bp | 3.592% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 14% | 86% | 0% | −4 bp | 3.594% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 19% | 81% | 0% | −5 bp | 3.582% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 24% | 76% | 0% | −6 bp | 3.570% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 38% | 62% | 0% | −10 bp | 3.500% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 38% | 62% | 0% | −10 bp | 3.500% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 38% | 62% | 0% | −10 bp | 3.495% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 29% | 71% | 0% | −7 bp | 3.509% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 29% | 71% | 0% | −7 bp | 3.518% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 24% | 76% | 0% | −6 bp | 3.535% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 24% | 76% | 0% | −6 bp | 3.565% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 43% | 57% | 0% | −11 bp | 3.563% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 38% | 62% | 0% | −10 bp | 3.505% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 33% | 67% | 0% | −8 bp | 3.562% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 48% | 52% | 0% | −12 bp | 3.351% |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 52% | 48% | 0% | −13 bp | 3.324% |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 48% | 52% | 0% | −12 bp | 3.381% |
| Oct 3, 2025 | 43% | 57% | 0% | −11 bp | 3.413% |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 38% | 62% | 0% | −10 bp | 3.505% |
| Sep 19, 2025 | 48% | 52% | 0% | −12 bp | 3.401% |
| Sep 12, 2025 | 52% | 48% | 0% | −13 bp | 3.369% |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 57% | 43% | 0% | −14 bp | 3.357% |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 57% | 43% | 0% | −14 bp | 3.507% |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 57% | 43% | 0% | −14 bp | 3.497% |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 52% | 48% | 0% | −13 bp | 3.549% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | 43% | 57% | 0% | −11 bp | 3.528% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 52% | 48% | 0% | −13 bp | 3.494% |
Each day’s close of the futures-implied odds for this meeting. The futures price a meeting from about a year out, so this meeting’s history starts Jul 30, 2025; the daily record on this site starts July 30, 2025.
Meeting details
- Dates
- March 17–18, 2026
- Statement
- 2:00 PM ET, Wednesday, March 18, 2026
- Press conference
- 2:30 PM ET
- Projections
- Yes: Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot
- Minutes
- About three weeks after the decision, around Apr 8, 2026
Other meetings
Every meeting since September 2025, with the decision and the odds before it, is on the FOMC meetings page. Live odds for all upcoming meetings, the implied rate path and the futures strip are on Fed Watch.
Questions
What did the Fed decide at the March 2026 FOMC meeting?
On March 18, 2026, the FOMC left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75%.
Did markets expect the March 2026 Fed decision?
Yes. The day before (March 17, 2026), Fed Funds futures priced a 98% chance of no change. A week before, the odds of no change were 100%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
Each 30-day Fed Funds futures contract (/ZQ) settles at 100 minus the average effective federal funds rate (EFFR) over its month. The contract for the meeting month, or for the next month without a meeting, gives the rate the market expects after the decision. The gap from the rate going in, measured against 25 bp steps, is split into probabilities for each outcome.