December 2026 FOMC Meeting: Rate Probabilities
December 8–9, 2026 · decision Wednesday, December 9, 2026, 2:00 PM ET · with economic projections (dot plot)
Odds now
liveProbabilities implied by 30-day Fed Funds futures (/ZQ), the same numbers as Fed Watch.
How the odds have moved
change in 25bp hike odds| Reading | Date | 25bp cut | Hold | 25bp hike | Change | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Nov 10 | 0% | 18% | 82% | — | +20 bp |
| Previous close | Nov 9 | 0% | 18% | 82% | ±0 pts | +20 bp |
| 1 week earlier | Nov 3 | 0% | 21% | 79% | +3 pts | +20 bp |
| 1 month earlier | Oct 9 | 0% | 18% | 82% | ±0 pts | +20 bp |
Earlier readings are the futures-implied odds at each day’s close. Change is the move in the odds of today’s likeliest outcome; Implied is the expected rate change at the meeting.
Odds since Dec 10, 2025
Weekly readings (49 weeks, newest first)
| Week ending | 25bp cut | Hold | 25bp hike | Implied | EFFR after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026 (live) | 0% | 18% | 82% | +20 bp | 4.084% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 0% | 24% | 76% | +19 bp | 4.070% |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 0% | 27% | 73% | +18 bp | 4.063% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 0% | 24% | 76% | +19 bp | 4.090% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 0% | 18% | 82% | +20 bp | 4.129% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 0% | 18% | 82% | +20 bp | 4.129% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 0% | 21% | 79% | +20 bp | 4.127% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 0% | 18% | 82% | +20 bp | 4.239% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 0% | 21% | 79% | +20 bp | 4.222% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 0% | 32% | 68% | +17 bp | 4.139% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 0% | 46% | 54% | +13 bp | 3.979% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 0% | 35% | 65% | +16 bp | 4.012% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 0% | 58% | 42% | +11 bp | 3.891% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 0% | 61% | 39% | +10 bp | 3.864% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 0% | 55% | 45% | +11 bp | 3.923% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 0% | 52% | 48% | +12 bp | 3.995% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 0% | 61% | 39% | +10 bp | 4.069% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 0% | 63% | 37% | +9 bp | 3.942% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 0% | 61% | 39% | +10 bp | 3.999% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 0% | 61% | 39% | +10 bp | 3.939% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 0% | 69% | 31% | +8 bp | 3.938% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 0% | 61% | 39% | +10 bp | 4.019% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 0% | 63% | 37% | +9 bp | 3.827% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 0% | 58% | 42% | +11 bp | 3.891% |
| May 29, 2026 | 0% | 75% | 25% | +6 bp | 3.768% |
| May 22, 2026 | 0% | 66% | 34% | +8 bp | 3.874% |
| May 15, 2026 | 0% | 69% | 31% | +8 bp | 3.792% |
| May 8, 2026 | 0% | 89% | 11% | +3 bp | 3.648% |
| May 1, 2026 | 0% | 92% | 8% | +2 bp | 3.631% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 11% | 89% | 0% | −3 bp | 3.527% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | 20% | 80% | 0% | −5 bp | 3.476% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 17% | 83% | 0% | −4 bp | 3.578% |
| Apr 3, 2026 | 11% | 89% | 0% | −3 bp | 3.627% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3% | 97% | 0% | −1 bp | 3.778% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 8% | 92% | 0% | −2 bp | 3.719% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 23% | 77% | 0% | −6 bp | 3.424% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 31% | 69% | 0% | −8 bp | 3.212% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 45% | 55% | 0% | −11 bp | 3.017% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 37% | 63% | 0% | −9 bp | 3.083% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 34% | 66% | 0% | −8 bp | 3.001% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 23% | 77% | 0% | −6 bp | 3.084% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 23% | 77% | 0% | −6 bp | 3.104% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 20% | 80% | 0% | −5 bp | 3.200% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 20% | 80% | 0% | −5 bp | 3.190% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 22% | 78% | 0% | −5 bp | 3.125% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 14% | 86% | 0% | −3 bp | 3.060% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 12% | 88% | 0% | −3 bp | 3.065% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 16% | 84% | 0% | −4 bp | 3.045% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 12% | 88% | 0% | −3 bp | 3.100% |
Each day’s close of the futures-implied odds for this meeting, ending on the live reading. The futures price a meeting from about a year out, so this meeting’s history starts Dec 10, 2025; the daily record on this site starts July 30, 2025.
Meeting details
- Dates
- December 8–9, 2026
- Statement
- 2:00 PM ET, Wednesday, December 9, 2026
- Press conference
- 2:30 PM ET
- Projections
- Yes: Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot
- Minutes
- About three weeks after the decision, around Dec 30, 2026
Other meetings
Every meeting since September 2025, with the decision and the odds before it, is on the FOMC meetings page. Live odds for all upcoming meetings, the implied rate path and the futures strip are on Fed Watch.
Questions
When is the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets December 8–9, 2026. The rate decision and statement come at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, followed by the Chair's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. This meeting also publishes a new Summary of Economic Projections (the dot plot).
What are the odds of a rate hike at the December 2026 Fed meeting?
As of November 10, 2026, Fed Funds futures (/ZQ) price an 82% chance of a 25 bp hike and an 18% chance of no change at the December 2026 meeting, an expected change of +20 bp. The target range is currently 3.75–4.00%.
How have the odds for the December 2026 FOMC meeting changed?
The odds of a 25 bp hike are 82% as of November 10, 2026; a week earlier (Nov 3, 2026) they were 79%; a month earlier (Oct 9, 2026) they were 82%. The daily record for this meeting starts December 10, 2025.
How are these probabilities calculated?
Each 30-day Fed Funds futures contract (/ZQ) settles at 100 minus the average effective federal funds rate (EFFR) over its month. The contract for the meeting month, or for the next month without a meeting, gives the rate the market expects after the decision. The gap from the rate going in, measured against 25 bp steps, is split into probabilities for each outcome.