January 2027 FOMC Meeting: Rate Probabilities
January 26–27, 2027 · decision Wednesday, January 27, 2027, 2:00 PM ET
Odds now
liveProbabilities implied by 30-day Fed Funds futures (/ZQ), the same numbers as Fed Watch.
How the odds have moved
change in Hold odds| Reading | Date | 25bp cut | Hold | 25bp hike | Change | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Nov 10 | 0% | 74% | 26% | — | +7 bp |
| Previous close | Nov 9 | 0% | 74% | 26% | ±0 pts | +7 bp |
| 1 week earlier | Nov 3 | 0% | 71% | 29% | +3 pts | +7 bp |
| 1 month earlier | Oct 9 | 0% | 60% | 40% | +14 pts | +10 bp |
Earlier readings are the futures-implied odds at each day’s close. Change is the move in the odds of today’s likeliest outcome; Implied is the expected rate change at the meeting.
Odds since Jan 28, 2026
Weekly readings (42 weeks, newest first)
| Week ending | 25bp cut | Hold | 25bp hike | Implied | EFFR after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026 (live) | 0% | 74% | 26% | +7 bp | 4.150% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 0% | 80% | 20% | +5 bp | 4.120% |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 0% | 71% | 29% | +7 bp | 4.135% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 0% | 64% | 36% | +9 bp | 4.180% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 0% | 64% | 36% | +9 bp | 4.220% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 0% | 60% | 40% | +10 bp | 4.230% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 0% | 59% | 41% | +10 bp | 4.230% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 0% | 52% | 48% | +12 bp | 4.360% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 0% | 61% | 39% | +10 bp | 4.320% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 0% | 64% | 36% | +9 bp | 4.230% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 0% | 78% | 22% | +6 bp | 4.035% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 0% | 75% | 25% | +6 bp | 4.075% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 0% | 82% | 18% | +4 bp | 3.935% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 0% | 81% | 19% | +5 bp | 3.910% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 0% | 85% | 15% | +4 bp | 3.960% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 0% | 76% | 24% | +6 bp | 4.055% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 0% | 81% | 19% | +5 bp | 4.115% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 0% | 87% | 13% | +3 bp | 3.975% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 0% | 87% | 13% | +3 bp | 4.030% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 0% | 87% | 13% | +3 bp | 3.970% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 0% | 95% | 5% | +1 bp | 3.950% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 0% | 83% | 17% | +4 bp | 4.060% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 0% | 83% | 17% | +4 bp | 3.870% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 0% | 78% | 22% | +5 bp | 3.945% |
| May 29, 2026 | 0% | 89% | 11% | +3 bp | 3.795% |
| May 22, 2026 | 0% | 82% | 18% | +5 bp | 3.920% |
| May 15, 2026 | 0% | 85% | 15% | +4 bp | 3.830% |
| May 8, 2026 | 0% | 95% | 5% | +1 bp | 3.660% |
| May 1, 2026 | 0% | 90% | 10% | +2 bp | 3.655% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0 bp | 3.530% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | 4% | 96% | 0% | −1 bp | 3.465% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 5% | 95% | 0% | −1 bp | 3.565% |
| Apr 3, 2026 | 1% | 99% | 0% | 0 bp | 3.625% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 0% | 97% | 3% | +1 bp | 3.785% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2% | 98% | 0% | 0 bp | 3.715% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0 bp | 3.425% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 5% | 95% | 0% | −1 bp | 3.200% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 15% | 85% | 0% | −4 bp | 2.980% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 11% | 89% | 0% | −3 bp | 3.055% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 10% | 90% | 0% | −3 bp | 2.975% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0 bp | 3.085% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0 bp | 3.105% |
Each day’s close of the futures-implied odds for this meeting, ending on the live reading. The futures price a meeting from about a year out, so this meeting’s history starts Jan 28, 2026; the daily record on this site starts July 30, 2025.
Meeting details
- Dates
- January 26–27, 2027
- Statement
- 2:00 PM ET, Wednesday, January 27, 2027
- Press conference
- 2:30 PM ET
- Projections
- No (published in March, June, September and December)
- Minutes
- About three weeks after the decision, around Feb 17, 2027
Other meetings
Every meeting since September 2025, with the decision and the odds before it, is on the FOMC meetings page. Live odds for all upcoming meetings, the implied rate path and the futures strip are on Fed Watch.
Questions
When is the January 2027 FOMC meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets January 26–27, 2027. The rate decision and statement come at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, January 27, 2027, followed by the Chair's press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
What are the odds of a rate hike at the January 2027 Fed meeting?
As of November 10, 2026, Fed Funds futures (/ZQ) price a 74% chance of no change and a 26% chance of a 25 bp hike at the January 2027 meeting, an expected change of +7 bp. The target range is currently 3.75–4.00%.
How have the odds for the January 2027 FOMC meeting changed?
The odds of no change are 74% as of November 10, 2026; a week earlier (Nov 3, 2026) they were 71%; a month earlier (Oct 9, 2026) they were 60%. The daily record for this meeting starts January 28, 2026.
How are these probabilities calculated?
Each 30-day Fed Funds futures contract (/ZQ) settles at 100 minus the average effective federal funds rate (EFFR) over its month. The contract for the meeting month, or for the next month without a meeting, gives the rate the market expects after the decision. The gap from the rate going in, measured against 25 bp steps, is split into probabilities for each outcome.