How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

6 outcomesSettles Jan 01, 2027 (62d)

50/50 line66%Above 140

Line nearest 50/50

66%

Above 140

Market median

141.761

even odds of landing above or below

Biggest 24h move+1 pts

Above 160

24h volume

$2K

$178K open interest · $1 contracts

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no

Above 120 98%

Above 140 66% +3

Above 145 22% -2

Above 150 6% +1

Above 160 4% +1

Above 170 4% +1

median 141.761

Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.

rungs nearest 50/50 · daily

Outcome	Odds	24h change	24h volume	Open interest
Above 120	98%	—	$4	$18K
Above 140	66%	+3.0	$59	$27K
Above 145	22%	-2.0	$219	$21K
Above 150	6%	+1.0	$106	$30K
Above 160	4%	+1.0	$1K	$53K
Above 170	4%	+1.0	$84	$30K