What will Vlad Tenev say during NYT DealBook Summit?
50/50 line45%Option
Line nearest 50/50
45%
Runner-up
73%
Biggest 24h move
—
24h volume
$33
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAgent / Agentic
79%
+14
Tokenized / Tokenization
73%
-7
Prediction Market
66%
-6
Crypto / Cryptocurrency
60%
-8
Sport
58%
Social
52%
Perp / Perpetual
50%
-6
Bank / Banking
45%
-9
Option
45%
+3
Retire / Retirement
42%
-4
Credit Card
34%
Bitcoin
22%
+ 3 more in the table below.
Odds over time
hourlyHourly closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
17| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agent / Agentic | 79% | +14.0 | $2 | $1K |
| Tokenized / Tokenization | 73% | -7.0 | $0 | $337 |
| Prediction Market | 66% | -5.5 | $0 | $17 |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 61% | — | $0 | $857 |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 60% | -8.0 | $6 | $705 |
| Sport | 58% | — | $0 | $0 |
| Social | 52% | — | $0 | $45 |
| Perp / Perpetual | 50% | -5.5 | $0 | $37 |
| Bank / Banking | 45% | -9.0 | $0 | $38 |
| Option | 45% | +3.0 | $18 | $41 |
| Retire / Retirement | 42% | -4.5 | $0 | $98 |
| Active Trader / Active Trading | 42% | -7.5 | $0 | $22 |
| Credit Card | 34% | — | $0 | $14 |
| Bitcoin | 22% | — | $0 | $42 |
| Gold (3+ times) | 20% | — | $7 | $7 |
| Kalshi | 13% | — | $0 | $8 |
| Event does not qualify | 6% | — | $0 | $10 |