What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 50%, implying a 50% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 02, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Dec 02, 2026 (22d) All outcomes: What will Vlad Tenev say during NYT DealBook Summit?

chance of YES50% -5.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

42–55%

24h volume

—

$1 contracts

Open interest

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Sport58%—