What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 50%, implying a 50% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 22, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 22, 2026 (9d) All outcomes: Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

chance of YES50%

Price range (6h)

7–34%

24h volume

—

$1 contracts

Open interest

140

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 6h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.