What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 94%, implying a 94% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 27, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Oct 27, 2027 (361d) All outcomes: Fed decision in Oct 2027? Fed Watch — futures-implied odds

chance of YES94%

Price range (120d)

44–96%

· 7d +12 pts

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

12.5K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$5K

78% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 28, 7:18 PM ET	NO	51¢	2,143	$1K
Oct 27, 7:38 PM ET	YES	93¢	2,143	$2K
Oct 20, 7:27 AM ET	YES	92¢	1,947	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.