What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 19%, implying a 19% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 02, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

Above 4

Closes Dec 02, 2026 (168d) 24h volume 24 Open interest 2.8K Event How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

19%

implied YES probability

+14.0pp 24h

Last 58 days · High 64% · Low 12% · 7d -50.0pp · 30d -68.4pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.