What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 50%, implying a 50% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 13, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

chance of YES50%

Price range (120d)

1–97%

· 7d +159 pts

24h volume

—

$1 contracts

Open interest

226

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Pena47%—

Olana46%—

Ulana32%—

Wale12%—

Iona2%—