What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 02, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Friedrich Merz

Closes Jan 02, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 22 Open interest 5.7K Event Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

12%

implied YES probability

Last 35 days · High 21% · Low 9% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d +40.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.