What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 02, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Closes Jan 02, 2027 (176d) 24h volume 5 Open interest 13.0K Event Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

implied YES probability

-3.0pp 24h

Last 37 days · High 32% · Low 5% · 7d -61.5pp · 30d -82.8pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.