What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 02, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Mark Carney

Closes Jan 02, 2027 (176d) 24h volume 1.8K Open interest 7.6K Event Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

implied YES probability

-6.0pp 24h

Last 31 days · High 12% · Low 1% · 7d -91.7pp · 30d -88.5pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.