What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 22%, implying a 22% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 07, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 07, 2027 (68d) All outcomes: Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026?

chance of YES22% +3.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

1–23%

· 7d +150 pts

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.5K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.