What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 6%, implying a 6% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Measles cases in 2026?

chance of YES6% -1.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

5–14%

30d -36 pts · 7d -36 pts

24h volume

8.8K

$1 contracts

Open interest

44.1K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$10K

0% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 5:06 PM ET	NO	94¢	7,527	$7K
Oct 30, 12:50 PM ET	NO	92¢	1,177	$1K
Oct 20, 4:39 PM ET	NO	93¢	2,418	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.