What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 10%, implying a 10% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 25, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 25, 2027 (86d) All outcomes: Iowa State House winner? Polls & election odds

chance of YES10% +0.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

5–91%

· 7d -58 pts

24h volume

10.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

16.7K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$12K

0% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 1:14 PM ET	NO	92¢	5,000	$5K
Oct 25, 6:43 PM ET	NO	89¢	7,000	$6K
Oct 22, 11:32 AM ET	NO	90¢	1,206	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.