What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 90%, implying a 90% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 25, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 25, 2027 (86d) All outcomes: Iowa State House winner? Polls & election odds

chance of YES90% -2.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

81–94%

· 7d +6 pts

24h volume

15.4K

$1 contracts

Open interest

43.9K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

87¢ / 88¢

spread 1.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 87.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 1:14 PM ET	YES	93¢	12,000	$11K
Oct 29, 8:49 AM ET	YES	87¢	6,401	$6K
Oct 25, 7:40 PM ET	YES	87¢	1,900	$2K
Oct 23, 3:40 PM ET	YES	88¢	1,900	$2K
Oct 23, 2:04 AM ET	NO	11¢	10,351	$1K
Oct 22, 10:36 PM ET	YES	90¢	9,000	$8K
Oct 22, 8:54 PM ET	NO	13¢	8,096	$1K
Oct 22, 2:07 PM ET	YES	90¢	4,000	$4K
Oct 22, 11:09 AM ET	YES	88¢	1,500	$1K
Oct 21, 8:54 PM ET	YES	85¢	2,136	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.