What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 56%, implying a 56% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Dec 01, 2026 (18d) All outcomes: What will Trump say in November?

chance of YES56% -8.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

52–84%

· 7d -17 pts

24h volume

676

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.4K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

UFC100%200