What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 43%, implying a 43% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 450,000

Settles Jul 31, 2027 (280d) All outcomes: Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027

chance of YES43% -14.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

9–97%

· 7d -14 pts

24h volume

443

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.5K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.