What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 94%, implying a 94% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 325,000

Settles Jul 31, 2027 (280d) All outcomes: Tesla production in Q1 2027

chance of YES94% +4.0pp in 24h

Price range (10h)

92–97%

24h volume

109

$1 contracts

Open interest

143

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 10h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.