What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 75%, implying a 75% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 400,000

Settles Jul 31, 2027 (280d) All outcomes: Tesla production in Q1 2027

chance of YES75% -9.0pp in 24h

Price range (5d)

72–81%

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 5d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.