What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 42%, implying a 42% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 29, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jun 29, 2027 (241d) All outcomes: Major volcano eruption in 2026?

chance of YES42% -7.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

10–89%

30d -56 pts · 7d +77 pts

24h volume

262

$1 contracts

Open interest

778

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.