What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 29, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

At least 2

Closes Jun 29, 2027 (377d) 24h volume 560 Open interest 613 Event Major volcano eruption in 2026?

12%

implied YES probability

+9.0pp 24h

Last 11 days · High 41% · Low 4% · 7d 0.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.