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US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

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chance of YES3% -0.9pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
3–5%
30d -8 pts · 7d -3 pts
24h volume
$6.2K
USDC traded
Open interest
$128.3K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.