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US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume $300 Open interest $121.7K Event US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
3%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 14% · Low 3% · 7d -18.8pp · 30d -23.3pp
14%3%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.