Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

The prediction market for Dan Caine to be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026 currently reflects a 0% probability, with a YES price of $0.00. This assessment is informed by the lack of any known facts or developments that would suggest Dan Caine's likelihood of holding the position. The current price does not reflect any significant events or circumstances that would impact the market's perception of his chances. For the price to move upward, new information or developments would need to emerge that increase the likelihood of Dan Caine being appointed and confirmed as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026. Conversely, a decrease in the YES price would require the emergence of factors that diminish Dan Caine's prospects for holding the position.